Demographics of Israel
By Nate Sirotovich
The nation of Israel is made unique by several factors. It is the only Jewish-majority state in the world, and its demographics make it stand out relative to other nations. Its annual population growth rate is around 1.6% per year in 2021, and its fertility rate is 2.9 births per woman. This is, by far, the highest fertility rate in the OECD. The average birth rate in those countries is roughly 1.66.
Israeli fertility has always been above replacement level, or 2.1 births per woman. Its peak was in the early 1950s at around 4.5 children per woman, and it declined to roughly 3 children per woman in 1990. It has been surprisingly stable ever since then, despite the fact that many expected it to drop to sub-replacement level. Nations with a similar GDP per capita tend to have sub-replacement fertility; high-income countries’ birth rates were at Israel’s current levels in the 1950s and started to decline in the following three decades. Overall, global fertility rates have fallen over the last 50 years, yet Israel’s fertility has not declined as much.
Israel is a clear outlier in this regard. But why?
Many would point to the fact that, generally speaking, the more religious an Israeli is, the likelier they are to have many children. 73.8% of the country’s population is Jewish, 18% is Muslim, 1.9% is Christian, and 1.6% is Druze. However, among those who are Jewish, there are many different sects and identities to represent how closely they follow the religion, if at all. In 2015, 40% of Israeli adults identified as Hiloni, or secular. 23% followed Masorti, or conservative, Judaism, while another 10% said they were Dati, or modern Orthodox. The remaining 8% of Israelis who self-identified as Jewish in 2015 stated that they were Haredi, or ultra-Orthodox. This number has increased dramatically in recent years, far outpacing the growth of any other religious group in the nation. This has been the case throughout Israel’s history — the religious population equaled 45,000 in 1948 and is now 2.3 million people.
Today, 13.5% of Israel self-identifies as Haredi, and this number is projected to grow to 16% by 2030. According to the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, their population growth rate amounts to 4% per year. Furthermore, their population is very young, as 60% of Haredim are below the age of 20 years old. While this is by far the most fertile segment of the population (https://www.timesofisrael.com/haredim-are-fastest-growing-population-will-be-16-of-israelis-by-decades-end/), at 6.9 live births per woman on average, the non-Haredi Jewish rate is still far above peer nations’. The average Dati woman has 4.3 children, and Masorti women tend to have 3 children. Religiosity is strongly correlated with the number of children in a family; however, secular Jews have 2.1 children on average.
Jewish communities in Israel are not the only ones to have many children. In 2020, traditional Muslim families had 4.66 children on average, while non-religious Muslims had 4.41. Druze had a mean of 2.02 children in 2021, while Arab Christians have the lowest birth rate, at 1.76 children per woman; this is still higher than the average OECD rate.
The population growth of Israel can also be attributed, albeit to a lesser extent, to immigration. Israel allows for anyone who has a Jewish grandparent or spouse to immigrate, or make aliyah, to Israel, and gain citizenship.
Tens of thousands of Jews from across the world move to the state of Israel every year. In 2022, 74,714 people made aliyah, mainly Russian Jews as well as Ukrainian refugees escaping the Russian invasion and finding a new home in the Jewish state. Between the start of the war and June of 2023, over 47,000 Russians moved to Israel, compared to roughly 15,500 Ukrainian citizens. Russian Jews’ aliyah to Israel is also partially driven by the Russo-Ukrainian war and Putin’s crackdown on political dissidents.
