An Update on Israeli Normalization in the Arab World
by Elizabeth Pipes
The last few years of Middle Eastern relations have seen the development of open, even friendly, ties between Israel and states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). While relations have been previously held back due to the unresolved state of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, these new formalized relations mark a shift in the region’s priorities. Gulf states are elevating their national interests, especially economic ones, over cross-Arab relations. In addition, growing fear and concern over Iran has helped progress the normalization of ties with Israel.
September 15, 2020 marked the notable signing of the Abraham Accords, a declaration of diplomatic ties between the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain with Israel. Sudan and Morocco both joined the agreement in the following months. This statement marked the first public normalization of relations between an Arab country and Israel since 1994 with Jordan.
Lines of communication between the UAE and Bahrain with Israel are not new. Several countries in the region established connections with Israel after the Oslo Accords were signed in 1993 between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization, including Bahrain, Oman and Qatar. The politics of Arab states having personal liaisons with Israel, despite a lack of peace, has been a gray area. In spite of the taboo against normalizing relations with Israel that exists among the Arab world, ties continued to develop behind closed doors after Oslo.
Soon after the signing came criticisms from Palestinian leadership, marked by feelings of betrayal. The mainstream Palestinian political belief is that normalization with Israel legitimizes Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories. These tensions left the UAE in a politically uncomfortable position during the summer of 2021, which witnessed the worst period of violence in the Israel-Palestine region since 2017. The UAE publicly condemned its newly official ally after escalations of violence between Israelis and Palestinians in an East Jerusalem neighborhood.
But the results of the Abraham Accords have proved fruitful for the United Arab Emirates. Since its signing, a number of Israeli start-ups in areas of artificial intelligence, high-tech and agriculture have benefitted from the relationship. Despite having hurt economies, capital exchanges between Israel and the UAE reached $500 million this past August. This interchange included business from tourism, aviation and financial services deals. While economic progress is the UAE’s main advantage from ties with Israel, the gulf nation also reaps security benefits, such as a U.S.-approved $23B sale of F-35 fighter jets that was closely tied to normalization.
Mutual concern over Iran has been a dominant factor in this new dynamic of emerging relations between Israel and Gulf Arab countries. According to Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammad bin Zayed Al Nahyan, an expansionist Iran is an impending threat to the UAE and its neighbors. This marks a shift from the historical view of Israel being the threat to regional stability. And with Israel sharing in these concerns over Iran, a strategic, formal alliance has developed. The role of the U.S. as a strong ally to Israel and security power cannot be ignored in Israeli-Arab relations. Creating ties with Israel could mean security alliances with Washington that involve “advanced military hardware and technology,” writes Omar Rahman of the Brookings Institute.
For Saudi Arabia, its role as houser of the holiest sites in Islam proves to be a barrier in legitimizing relations with Israel. However, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) has signaled an approach to Israel that is different from his father’s — one perhaps more open to the Jewish State. Relations between Riyadh and Israel have been quietly building over the past few years. November 2020 saw then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu covertly travel to Saudi Arabia to meet Crown Prince MBS and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Both countries have cooperated covertly for years, namely around security issues and sharing intelligence. Implementation of official diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE suggest a reshaping of political priorities in the region: away from the Palestinian issue and towards Iran.
The next Arab state to normalize ties with Israel may be Oman. Its record points to it being somewhat of an outlier among the GCC states, from publicly backing Egypt in the 1979 peace deal, to recently expressing support for a Israel-UAE normalization deal. Oman welcomed Israel’s ties with Bahrain last year, yet declined to normalize its own relations until Palestinians are granted their own state. New leadership in Oman, Israel and the U.S. may hurt chances for a deal. While the former ruler, Qaboos bin Said, was vital in the warming of Muscat’s relations with Israel, new Sultan Haitham bin Tariq will have more difficulty making controversial decisions shortly after entering office.
Although the Gulf Cooperation Council is not uniform in its views on relations with Israel, the number of its states that choose to formalize ties has grown. These relations mark a new shift taking place in the Middle East: one focused on Iran’s future rather than Israel and Palestine’s past.
