Israeli Political Campaigning Heats Up as November Election Looms
By Omer Hortig
In the leadup to the November 1st elections in Israel, new polling suggests that if the election was held today, the Likud-led “National Coalition” would win a majority of 61 seats in the Israeli Parliament, or Knesset. In all likelihood, this would usher in former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the top office again. Netanyahu, the longest serving prime minister in Israeli history, served two stints in office between 1996–1999 and 2009–2021. In this fifth election since April 2019, Netanyahu’s competence and integrity is once more the pivotal issue, as he campaigns while facing trial on multiple corruption charges. Incumbent Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who co-led the current government’s “Change Coalition” of a wide range of anti-Netanyahu parties in Knesset, appears to be running closely behind Netanyahu and his likely allies, with 55 projected Knesset seats for him and his allies.
Netanyahu, after an unprecedented term in office, was finally ousted after four inconclusive elections in June 2021 by a coalition of parties who believed that the allegations in Netanyahu’s corruption trials of bribery and pay-to-play schemes disqualified him from power. This “Change Coalition,” led by Lapid, head of the center-left Yesh Atid (“There Is a Future”) party, and Naftali Bennett, head of the right-wing Yamina (“Rightward”) party, then formed an unlikely government of parties on the left, right, and for the first time in Israeli history, Palestinian nationalist parties. As per the agreement in place between Lapid and Bennett, Bennett was to serve as Prime Minister for the first two years of the government, after which Lapid, who served as Foreign Minister, would take over. This expected swap, however, wasn’t given a chance to occur as planned. In the spring, two right-wing members of the coalition defected due to the blockage of a vote on Israeli settlers’ civil rights in the West Bank, a vote opposed by the Arab party of the coalition. With these defections, the coalition lost its majority in Knesset, and was therefore unable to govern. Subsequently, Bennett was forced to collapse the government and call for a new election, as Lapid stepped in as placeholder Prime Minister.
Amid the government collapse, and after a flare-up in tensions between Israelis and Palestinians which resulted in a short-lived armed conflict in August, Netanyahu sees a chance for a political comeback. While 62% of Israeli Jewish voters identify with the right, Netanyahu can be toxic to many who would otherwise back the right-wing “National Coalition.” Furthermore, political polarization has reached an extreme in the country, as political affiliation has become deeply intertwined with personal identity for many Israelis. Netanyahu’s Likud political party, the largest of the right wing, has once again aligned itself with the national-religious and ultra-orthodox camps which have backed them since their initial government in 2009. These traditional allies include the ultra-orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, and the rising far-right party Otzma Yehudit (“Jewish Strength”) led by political firebrand Itamar Ben-Gvir.
In the “Change Coalition,” Prime Minister Lapid heads a consortium of mostly centrist and left-wing parties, including his own Yesh Atid, the recently founded National Unity Party which combines the camps of Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Justice Minister Gideon Sa’ar, and the left-wing Labor and Meretz (“Vitality”) parties. Lapid, a former television reporter, has battled long-held perceptions that he lacks necessary leadership skills. His supporters have pointed to his performance as Prime Minister in battling Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, his warming of ties with the United States during U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel in July, and his September speech at the U.N. General Assembly in New York as proof of his capabilities.
The fringe parties who remain outside of the two main blocks may prove to be kingmakers as they fight for the remaining seats in Knesset. Naftali Bennett’s retirement from politics left his party, Yamina, in the hands of Ayelet Shaked. Now rebranded as Habayit Hayehudi (“The Jewish Home”), the party is struggling to reach the 3.25% threshold to obtain a seat in Knesset, with only 2.4% of the electorate pledging their support in recent polls. Shaked, once a rising star on the right, has seen her support crumble in recent years. Her support for Bennett’s deal-making with the centrist Lapid has alienated her right-wing base, with many flocking over to Otzma Yehudit and Itamar Ben-Gvir. In the formerly unified Arab camp, the decision of Ra’am (also known as the United Arab List) to leave the once all-encompassing Joint List and join the Bennett-Lapid government has depressed the Arab Israeli vote and exposed divisions. Balad, a different Arab party, has also decided to separate from the Joint List. The party, seen as extremist by many Jews, was recently given the green light to run by the Israeli Supreme Court after previously being disqualified by the Central Elections Committee for “undermining the state’s Jewish character.” The collapse of the Arab coalition and the political frustration felt by many Arab Israelis has left all three Arab camps currently polling below the electoral threshold, potentially resulting in a Knesset with no Arab Israeli representation for the first time in the nation’s history.
The leadup to the November 1st elections has many Israelis worried about the potential for yet another political quagmire, in which no block has the votes necessary to form a government. In the meantime, political tensions are flaring, with entrenched supporters on either side likely too divided to challenge the status quo.
